El Salvador heading towards a single party system with only three opposition deputies, poll says

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By LatAm Reports Editor

The poll presented yesterday by the consortium Observa El Salvador 2024 reflects favoritism by the ruling party and a weakened opposition, at risk of the representations of these disappearing due to lack of votes for the Legislative Assembly.

The legislature from 2024 to 2027 would be made up of two deputies from the ARENA party, 57 New Ideas officials and an ally of the Christian Democratic Party, according to data from the social humor survey recently launched by the electoral observation consortium Observa El Salvador 2024.

Of the 16 seats in San Salvador, a total of 15 would be for New Ideas and one for the ARENA party. In the polling exercise for this department, five profiles of each party were taken into account and in the official, the current faction leader, Christian Guevara, was the one who obtained fewer marks per face, compared to Ernesto Castro, Suecy Callejas, Rodrigo Ayala and Alexia Rivas.

In addition, the survey revealed that a deputy of ARENA could enter this department from the votes per face.

If it were only locally, so it was, the director of the Institute of Science, Technology and Research at Francisco Gavidia University, Santa Picardo, said.

In Freedom they would be six out of seven for New Ideas and also a seat for the tricolor match.

In Santa Ana and Sonsonate the five seats that correspond to it would be for New Ideas. In Usulután, the four seats are filled by the same party; in Ahuachapán and La Paz the three seats that correspond to each would also be for the ruling party.

The same panorama was reflected in the departments with two scrolls; that is, Cuscatlán, Chalatenango, San Vicente, Cabañas and La Unión.

According to the university study, for the February elections in which the seats for the Presidency and deputies of the Legislative Assembly will be elected, Salvadorans will choose the profiles of deputies from their support for the Presidency and its proposals. The poll did not contemplate foreign votes, so everything is still subject to changes by the votes of the remote modality that will be included in San Salvador and the face-to-faces that will correspond to the residence department.

In the face of the question, what factor does it most influence its decision to vote for deputies to the Legislative Assembly for the 2024 elections? 34.7% chose because they support President Bukele, 26.7% for the proposals, 18.2% for the candidate, 9.5% for the party, 4.2% for whom they are “opposition,” and 6.7% still do not know or did not respond.

A less official seat. In the survey published by the Fifth Survey of Social and Political Humor of the Francisco Gavidia University, he reflected that the next Legislative Assembly would consist of 58 deputies and cyan deputies, and that the remaining two seats would be one for ARENA and one for the FMLN.

Presidential elections

The presidential elections will also be on February 4 and to date the citizenry continues not to know the profiles of those competing for office, thus revealed the consortium’s survey.

The one who knows the least is the candidate of the Salvadoran Patriot Fraternity, Marina Murillo with 85.8%; followed by that of Fuerza Solidaria, Rafael Renderos, with 83.7%.

The following is the candidate of ARENA, Joel Sánchez with 79.8%; then that of Our Time, Luis Parada, with 78.4% and Manuel Flores with 64.6%.

We have democratic confusion about the separation of powers, that a party has a majority would imply dissent of debate and discussion.

Scar Picardo, researcher

By placing those who the population considers to be the best candidate or candidate they place in the first place for the candidacy of New Ideas, then that of the FMLN, that of the FMLN, that of the FPS, followed by that of Our Time, then that of ARENA and finally that of Fuerza Solidaria.

On the intentions of voting, the presidential formula of New Ideas would obtain 70.9% of votes in their favor; Our Time with 1.1%; ARENA 2.7%; FMLN 2.9%; Fuerza Solidaria 0.6%; and the Salvadoran Patriot Fraternity 0.6%.

Still intention to abstain from voting

For the presidential elections, the abstention rate rose from 9.9% to 15%, compared to August 2023.

“This is a manifest abstention in a poll, that gives you a more dramatic level,” Picardo expanded.

The expert explained that this lies in factors such as political-electoral disinterest, for sick people, people who die or from those who travel; although he acknowledged that it is a phenomenon that has always occurred in all democracies.

The abstention figure, which sometimes exceeds 20%, suggests that it is a kind of discontent or fear or that there is something behind that abstention,” Picardo said.

For the researcher, who does not want to participate in a simulated survey, is expressing an opinion through that abstention, but you would have to read what it means.

Picardo emphasized that abstentions and null votes would only benefit the government in the next elections.

Which political parties would disappear in 2024?

The future of the political parties, opponents or allies of New Ideas, have an uncertain and weakened future, said the director of the UFG Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation, Mr.Oscar Picardo, after the latest electoral survey of public opinion reflected that both the votes for the Presidency of the Republic, Legislative Assembly and municipal councils favor the New Ideas party.

“The future of the parties looks pretty gray, this poll confirms it,” Picardo said.

The expert is aware of whether some political parties are going to disappear or whether they will get 50,000 votes or a post of official to make it not happen.

Both the territorial reorganization and the formula of D.Hont are “teachers” for the reordering of the political parties, the academic considered, exemplifying the case of La Libertad Este (Antiguo Cuscatlán, Huizúcar, Nuevo Cuscatlán, San José Villanueva and Zaragoza) in which Nuevas Ideas would have a strong opponent for the municipal elections, due to the trajectory of the mayor of Ancient Cuscatlán, Milagro Navas, however, still the percentage of sympathy towards NuevaIdeas is superior in the other municipalities (next districts), as revealed by the survey.

Everything that has been done in electoral matters tends to affect the relevance of political parties and favor the official,” Picardo recalled, referring to the electoral reforms approved in less than a year by New Ideas.

These are the reduction in the number of municipalities, the reduction of the number of deputies in the Legislative Assembly and changing the method of voting to place one that eliminates the parties with the least votes, but that has been pointed out to tempt against plurality.

This article has been translated from the original which first appeared in El Salvador