Like UNECLAC, the IMF and the World Bank anticipated in their latest updates a growth in Salvadoran GDP above 3 %.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) improved El Salvador’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections to 3.5 percent on Tuesday.
The United Nations agency improved the prospects announced last May, when it predicted that the Salvadoran economy would grow by 3 percent by the end of this year.
The trend towards improving growth projections goes hand in hand with forecasts previously announced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB).
Last April, the IMF confirmed an improvement in forecasting of a1.9 % to 3 %for this 2024, while the BM announced in June a modification of its projection of a2.5 % to 3.5 %.
The three international bodies point to growth between 3 % and 3.5 per cent. For its part, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) is more optimistic and bets that GDP will grow among a3.5 % and 4 %in this 2024.
In the region
If UNECLAC’s projections were met, El Salvador would be growing above the rate planned for Central America, which is around 3.1 percent for this year.
Despite this, El Salvador would have the fourth growing place in the region by 2024. UNECLAC expects the Costa Rican economy to grow at a rate of 4 %, while Honduras will grow by 3.8 percent and Nicaragua by 3.7 percent.
The Salvadoran economy would maintain dynamism above that of Guatemala and Panama, which anticipates a rate of 3.4% and 2.7 %, respectively.
UNECLAC expects the Central American region to maintain growth of 3.1 percent by 2025.
The latest update indicates a 3.1 percent growth projection for El Salvador, below the rest of Central America’s economies.
The United Nations agency expects a GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent for Guatemala and Nicaragua, while Panama will grow by 3.3 percent.
UNECLAC expects Honduras and Costa Rica to grow the most at the Central American level by 2025, establishing a dynamic of 3.6 % and 3.8 %, respectively.
The multilateral body emphasizes that Latin America remains “stalled,” at low growth levels, which go hand in hand with a “bad performance,” of investment and a low labor productivity.
The brake on boosting high levels of growth would also be linked to the lack of internal space for countries to implement macroeconomic policies that reactivate economies, as well as uncertainty in the world.
The report notes that between 2015 and 2024 the region’s average growth rate was 0.9%.
For this 2024, the projection is around 1.8% for Latin America, in this way, UNECLAC foresees a slower performance after closing 2023 with GDP growth of 2.2%.
This article has been translated after first appearing in Diario El Mundo