{"id":5779,"date":"2024-06-17T18:13:13","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T18:13:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/es\/?p=5779"},"modified":"2024-06-17T18:13:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T18:13:14","slug":"imf-forecasts-further-contraction-of-argentinas-economy-but-lower-inflation-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/es\/imf-forecasts-further-contraction-of-argentinas-economy-but-lower-inflation-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF forecasts further contraction of Argentina&#8217;s economy, but lower inflation in 2024\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday worsened its growth forecast for Argentina, a contraction of 3.5 percent in 2024, and improved that of average annual inflation to 233 percent, but warned of the risk that the recession will continue &#8220;feeding social tensions.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The financial institution published a detailed report in which it is satisfied with the &#8220;bike&#8221; plan of ultra-liberal President Javier Milei to drastically cut state spending, but he makes some objections and calls for more tax reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Amazing progress has been made to achieve the overall fiscal balance and priority must now be given to further improving the quality of the adjustment,&#8221; said Gita Gopinath, the number two of the IMF, after the agency&#8217;s executive board approved Thursday the eighth review of the credit agreement agreed with the South American country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This approval allowed for an immediate disbursement of about $800 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;There should be continued efforts to reform the income tax&#8221; of individuals, &#8220;rationalize subsidies and tax expenses and strengthen controls on public spending,&#8221; he adds in a statement published Monday, in which he believes that &#8220;dee deeper reforms of tax, pension and income-sharing systems will be needed.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, in his view &#8220;monetary and exchange rate policies must evolve to continue to strengthen the disinflation process and further improve the coverage of monetary reserves.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the latest update, the growth data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year worsens, from -2.75 % forecast in April to -3.5 %. But a trend change is expected during the second half, &#8220;as the winds are attenuated against fiscal consolidation, real wages begin to recover and investment is gradually recovered.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the Fund is satisfied with the evolution of the economy and inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average annual price increase forecast is from almost 250 per cent to 232.8 per cent, according to the latest report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monthly inflation drops by up to 4 per cent and will decrease &#8220;even more in the medium term,&#8221; says the IMF. And it expects reserves to remain unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&#8220;Social consensus&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risks of the credit program under which the South American country receives $44 billion to 30 months in exchange for an increase in its international reserves and reduces the fiscal deficit, &#8220;have moderated, but remain high,&#8221; the Fund warns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IMF believes that Milei&#8217;s government has &#8220;strongly removed the economy from a total crisis and hyperinflation&#8221; but the picture is not without risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>External conditions can become less favourable and &#8220;the recession could drag on, fuelling social tensions and complicating the implementation of the program,&#8221; he warns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Milei won Senate approval last week, by a narrow margin, to a package of controversial reforms, but will still have to pass the filter in the lower house.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IMF is concerned that further legislative delays will occur &#8220;because they could undermine stabilization and recovery efforts,&#8221; but believes that &#8220;social consensus&#8221; should be sought given &#8220;the fragile social and political landscape.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Half of the population lives in poverty, thousands of people lost their jobs and inflation eat the pensions and purchasing power of households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>This article has been translated after first appearing in <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/diario.elmundo.sv\/economia\/fmi-preve-mayor-contraccion-de-economia-argentina-pero-menor-inflacion-en-2024\"><strong><em>Diario El Mundo<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday worsened its growth forecast for Argentina, a contraction of 3.5 percent in 2024, and improved that of average &#8230; <a title=\"IMF forecasts further contraction of Argentina&#8217;s economy, but lower inflation in 2024\u00a0\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/es\/imf-forecasts-further-contraction-of-argentinas-economy-but-lower-inflation-in-2024\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about IMF forecasts further contraction of Argentina&#8217;s economy, but lower inflation in 2024\u00a0\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":5765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,13],"tags":[22],"class_list":["post-5779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-negocios","category-politica","tag-latam","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IMF forecasts further contraction of Argentina&#039;s economy, but lower inflation in 2024\u00a0 - LatAm Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/es\/imf-forecasts-further-contraction-of-argentinas-economy-but-lower-inflation-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF forecasts further contraction of Argentina&#039;s economy, but lower inflation in 2024\u00a0 - LatAm Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday worsened its growth forecast for Argentina, a contraction of 3.5 percent in 2024, and improved that of average ... 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