The benchmark interest rate is maintained at 5%, by decision of the Monetary Board
The Monetary Board kept the Monetary Policy Lead Rate at 5%.
For fourteen months in a row, the Monetary Policy Leader Interest Rate remains at 5%, after the members of the Monetary Board (WYD) took that decision tonight.
Since April 2023, the indicator remains at 5%, so inflation expectations remain anchored this way, despite the fact that the inflationary pace in Guatemala closed at 3.76% last May, that is below the central limit of 4% established by that collegiate entity.
In tonight’s session, Álvaro González Ricci and José Alfredo Blanco Valdés, president and vice president of the JM and the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), respectively, announced the reasons for maintaining the variable, after analyzing the external and internal contexts, but above all, the course of the economy in the United States.
From this account, it was reported that the prospects for economic growth remain positive, despite restrictive financial conditions and the persistence of geopolitical tensions in several regions of the world. However, this scenario – positive – is subject to some relevant risks, such as the permanence of high levels of inflation over the target in several advanced economies and high geopolitical uncertainty.
On the international price of oil, it was indicated that it has been showing a slight rise and volatile in recent weeks, although it remains at levels above those seen in the late 2023, due to better conditions of energy demand and less favourable prospects for crude oil supply. In terms of inflation at the international level, it continued to decline, although it is observed that it is still above the targets of many central banks.
Specifically at the domestic level, the JM stressed that most of the short-term indicators of economic activity are given the highest attention such as the monthly index of economic activity, foreign exchange for family remittances, performance of bank credit to the private sector, maintain a consistent performance with the estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5% by 2024 and 3.7% by 2025.
Inflation last May, which stood at 3.76% – which is more than 3.36% in April – is the result of the effect of monetary policy actions and the dissipation of inflation pressures from external origin recorded in previous months, it was indicated.
Therefore, inflation forecasts would remain in 2024 and 2025 within the target of 4% plus/minus 1%, so the model is consistent with keeping the leading monetary policy interest rate at 5% on this occasion.
Trajectory
In May 2022 to the date, the leading rate was adjusted from 1.75% to 5%:
- January to April 2022: 1.75%
- May 2022: 2%
- June 2022: 2.25%
- August 2022: 2.75%
- September 2022: 3%
- November 2022:3.75
- January 2023: 4.25%
- February 2023: 4.50%
- March 2023: 4.75%
- April 2023: 5%
- May 2023: 5%
- June 2023: 5%
- August 2023: 5%
- September 2023: 5%
- November 2023: 5%
- February 2024: 5%
- March 2024: 5%
- April 2024: 5%
- May 2024: 5%
- June 2024: 5%
This article has been translated after first appearing in Prensa Libre