{"id":16049,"date":"2026-10-01T21:27:05","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:27:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/?p=16049"},"modified":"2026-10-01T21:27:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:27:07","slug":"reta-final-lula-chega-a-frente-mas-o-segundo-turno-e-o-cenario-mais-provavel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/reta-final-lula-chega-a-frente-mas-o-segundo-turno-e-o-cenario-mais-provavel\/","title":{"rendered":"Reta final: Lula chega \u00e0 frente, mas o segundo turno \u00e9 o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tr\u00eas dias do primeiro turno, o presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) mant\u00e9m a lideran\u00e7a na corrida pelo Planalto, mas sem f\u00f4lego para liquidar a elei\u00e7\u00e3o no domingo. A <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaempreende.com.br\/pesquisa-presidente-2026-datafolha-lula-flavio-bolsonaro\/\">pesquisa Datafolha divulgada em 28 de setembro<\/a> mostra Lula com 40% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto e o senador Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL) com 36%, uma dist\u00e2ncia de quatro pontos com margem de erro de dois para mais ou para menos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O quadro mudou pouco ao longo de setembro. No <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gazetadopovo.com.br\/eleicoes\/2026\/pesquisa-eleitoral-2026\/datafolha-presidente-setembro-2026\/\">levantamento do in\u00edcio do m\u00eas<\/a>, o petista tinha 38% e o filho mais velho de Jair Bolsonaro, 32%. Desde ent\u00e3o, Fl\u00e1vio subiu alguns pontos e encurtou a diferen\u00e7a, enquanto Lula oscilou dentro da margem. Outros institutos apontam disputa ainda mais apertada: segundo o <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Brazilian_presidential_election\">compilado de pesquisas da Wikip\u00e9dia<\/a>, alguns levantamentos recentes colocam os dois praticamente empatados. Como antecipou a LatAm Reports, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/a-dez-dias-do-1o-turno-lula-e-flavio-bolsonaro-chegam-empatados-no-limite-da-margem-de-erro\/\">a dez dias do pleito os dois j\u00e1 chegavam empatados no limite da margem de erro<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A conta \u00e9 simples. Para vencer no domingo, um candidato precisa de mais da metade dos votos v\u00e1lidos. Com Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), Renan Santos (Miss\u00e3o) e Augusto Cury (Avante) somando juntos algo em torno de 15%, nenhum dos l\u00edderes chega l\u00e1. Se a proje\u00e7\u00e3o se confirmar, Lula e Fl\u00e1vio voltam \u00e0s urnas em <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/brazil-meet-the-candidates-2026\/\">25 de outubro<\/a>. Cury, ali\u00e1s, foi a surpresa do m\u00eas e <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/augusto-cury-dispara-nas-pesquisas-e-desponta-como-terceira-via-a-um-mes-da-eleicao\/\">despontou como poss\u00edvel terceira via<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O domingo n\u00e3o decide s\u00f3 a Presid\u00eancia. Os eleitores tamb\u00e9m escolhem governadores, dois ter\u00e7os do Senado, toda a C\u00e2mara dos Deputados e mais de mil cadeiras nas assembleias estaduais. O tamanho das bancadas vai definir a governabilidade de quem vencer em outubro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na reta final, a pauta da campanha tamb\u00e9m mudou. Depois de um ano em que a seguran\u00e7a p\u00fablica dominava as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es do eleitor, a corrup\u00e7\u00e3o voltou ao topo, impulsionada pelas investiga\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro. De acordo com a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.as-coa.org\/articles\/brazils-2026-presidential-candidates-lula-bolsonaro-and-other-top-contenders\">AS\/COA<\/a>, as apura\u00e7\u00f5es indicam conex\u00f5es com as campanhas tanto de Bolsonaro quanto de Lula. O caso j\u00e1 chegou ao Supremo, que precisou <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/stf-decide-nesta-terca-se-abre-investigacao-contra-alexandre-de-moraes-no-caso-vorcaro\/\">decidir sobre um pedido de investiga\u00e7\u00e3o envolvendo o ministro Alexandre de Moraes<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A propaganda eleitoral gratuita no r\u00e1dio e na TV terminou nesta quinta-feira, 1\u00ba de outubro. Daqui at\u00e9 domingo, a disputa se resume a debates, redes sociais e corpo a corpo. Para os dois favoritos, o desafio \u00e9 o mesmo: chegar ao segundo turno com o menor \u00edndice de rejei\u00e7\u00e3o poss\u00edvel, j\u00e1 que as simula\u00e7\u00f5es do Datafolha indicam um confronto direto apertado. Acompanhe a cobertura completa na <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/category\/politica\/\">editoria de Pol\u00edtica da LatAm Reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A tr\u00eas dias do primeiro turno, o presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) mant\u00e9m a lideran\u00e7a na corrida pelo Planalto, mas sem f\u00f4lego para &#8230; <a title=\"Reta final: Lula chega \u00e0 frente, mas o segundo turno \u00e9 o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/reta-final-lula-chega-a-frente-mas-o-segundo-turno-e-o-cenario-mais-provavel\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Reta final: Lula chega \u00e0 frente, mas o segundo turno \u00e9 o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reta final: Lula chega \u00e0 frente, mas o segundo turno \u00e9 o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel - LatAm Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/reta-final-lula-chega-a-frente-mas-o-segundo-turno-e-o-cenario-mais-provavel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reta final: Lula chega \u00e0 frente, mas o segundo turno \u00e9 o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel - LatAm Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A tr\u00eas dias do primeiro turno, o presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) mant\u00e9m a lideran\u00e7a na corrida pelo Planalto, mas sem f\u00f4lego para ... 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