{"id":12372,"date":"2025-06-26T18:27:22","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T18:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/?p=12372"},"modified":"2025-06-26T18:27:42","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T18:27:42","slug":"especialistas-alertam-para-risco-de-apagao-fiscal-no-brasil-sem-cortes-de-gastos-obrigatorios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/especialistas-alertam-para-risco-de-apagao-fiscal-no-brasil-sem-cortes-de-gastos-obrigatorios\/","title":{"rendered":"Especialistas alertam para risco de \u201capag\u00e3o fiscal\u201d no Brasil sem cortes de gastos obrigat\u00f3rios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A derrubada dos decretos que aumentariam o IOF escancarou um desafio urgente: o governo n\u00e3o consegue equilibrar as contas p\u00fablicas apenas com aumento de impostos. Ao mesmo tempo, hesita em cortar despesas obrigat\u00f3rias. Especialistas alertam que, se nada mudar, o Brasil<\/a> pode viver uma paralisia fiscal j\u00e1 em 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De acordo com o relat\u00f3rio da Institui\u00e7\u00e3o Fiscal Independente (IFI), mesmo que o governo consiga cumprir a meta fiscal de 2025 no limite, o cen\u00e1rio para os dois anos seguintes \u00e9 cr\u00edtico. Isso acontece porque os gastos obrigat\u00f3rios continuam crescendo acima do teto permitido pelo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal \u2014 regra que limita o avan\u00e7o das despesas a no m\u00e1ximo 2,5% ao ano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nesse contexto, medidas como elevar a arrecada\u00e7\u00e3o se tornam insuficientes. Sem cortes em benef\u00edcios previdenci\u00e1rios, vincula\u00e7\u00f5es com o sal\u00e1rio m\u00ednimo e outros pisos constitucionais, o espa\u00e7o para investimentos e a\u00e7\u00f5es b\u00e1sicas do governo ser\u00e1 anulado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o governo perdeu ao menos R$ 10 bilh\u00f5es em arrecada\u00e7\u00e3o com a queda do IOF. Portanto, deve anunciar novos bloqueios no or\u00e7amento. A d\u00favida \u00e9: o que ser\u00e1 cortado? Sa\u00fade, educa\u00e7\u00e3o e programas sociais s\u00e3o candidatos frequentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reforma fiscal \u00e9 urgente, e Congresso do Brasil resiste<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Economistas, Banco Mundial e ex-gestores p\u00fablicos apontam sa\u00eddas poss\u00edveis: reforma administrativa, revis\u00e3o de isen\u00e7\u00f5es no Imposto de Renda e mudan\u00e7as no modelo de corre\u00e7\u00e3o do sal\u00e1rio m\u00ednimo. No entanto, essas propostas enfrentam resist\u00eancia no Congresso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entre os principais riscos est\u00e1 o crescimento cont\u00ednuo dos chamados \u201cgastos engessados\u201d. Eles incluem aposentadorias, pens\u00f5es e benef\u00edcios que seguem regras espec\u00edficas de corre\u00e7\u00e3o. Mesmo com o al\u00edvio tempor\u00e1rio gerado por cortes no fim de 2024, o avan\u00e7o desses gastos tende a espremer todas as despesas livres do governo<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enquanto isso, o Congresso aprovou medidas que aumentam o custo da energia. A queda dos vetos aos chamados \u201cjabutis el\u00e9tricos\u201d \u2014 trechos estranhos ao projeto original \u2014 pode gerar impacto bilion\u00e1rio nas contas de luz at\u00e9 2050. Pelos c\u00e1lculos do setor el\u00e9trico, o aumento pode ser de at\u00e9 3,5% na tarifa. O governo fala em um custo total de R$ 525 bilh\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Portanto, se nenhuma reforma for aprovada, o cen\u00e1rio prov\u00e1vel \u00e9 de cortes emergenciais, aumento da d\u00edvida e perda de controle sobre o or\u00e7amento. O tempo, segundo os analistas, est\u00e1 se esgotando.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A derrubada dos decretos que aumentariam o IOF escancarou um desafio urgente: o governo n\u00e3o consegue equilibrar as contas p\u00fablicas apenas com aumento de impostos. … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":12373,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[13],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-12372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica","tag-brasil","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"\nBrasil: Especialistas alertam para risco de \u201capag\u00e3o fiscal\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A derrubada dos decretos que aumentariam 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