{"id":10964,"date":"2025-03-05T16:29:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T16:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/?p=10964"},"modified":"2025-03-05T16:29:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T16:29:40","slug":"guerra-comercial-pode-impulsionar-exportacoes-do-agronegocio-brasileiro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latamreports.com\/br\/guerra-comercial-pode-impulsionar-exportacoes-do-agronegocio-brasileiro\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerra comercial pode impulsionar exporta\u00e7\u00f5es do agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro pode se beneficiar da nova rodada de tarifas impostas pela China sobre produtos agr\u00edcolas dos Estados Unidos. Especialistas apontam que essa retalia\u00e7\u00e3o abre espa\u00e7o para que o Brasil amplie suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os e carnes, embora desafios como a concorr\u00eancia argentina e a instabilidade do com\u00e9rcio global possam limitar esses ganhos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A China, maior compradora de produtos agr\u00edcolas <\/a>dos EUA, anunciou tarifas de at\u00e9 15% sobre itens como frango e algod\u00e3o, al\u00e9m de um imposto de 10% sobre a soja americana. A decis\u00e3o foi uma resposta \u00e0 eleva\u00e7\u00e3o das tarifas dos EUA sobre exporta\u00e7\u00f5es chinesas, que passaram de 10% para 20%. O Canad\u00e1 seguiu a mesma linha e imp\u00f4s tarifas sobre produtos dos EUA, e especialistas preveem que o M\u00e9xico ser\u00e1 o pr\u00f3ximo a adotar medidas semelhantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para Marcos Jank, coordenador do Insper Agro Global, o cen\u00e1rio atual \u00e9 mais amplo e complexo do que a guerra comercial ocorrida no primeiro mandato de Donald Trump (2017-2021). Segundo ele, agora h\u00e1 mais setores e pa\u00edses envolvidos, incluindo amea\u00e7as tarif\u00e1rias contra a Europa, M\u00e9xico, Canad\u00e1 e os pa\u00edses do Brics. Jank alerta que, apesar dos ganhos imediatos para o Brasil, os EUA podem, futuramente, voltar sua aten\u00e7\u00e3o para as altas tarifas de importa\u00e7\u00e3o brasileiras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O estudo do Insper Agro Global revelou que, durante o primeiro mandato de Trump, o Brasil superou os EUA como principal exportador de produtos agr\u00edcolas para a China. Em 2024, o pa\u00eds vendeu 31,6 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares em soja para os chineses, enquanto as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es americanas do gr\u00e3o somaram 12,8 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares. Desde 2000, os embarques brasileiros de soja para a China cresceram a uma taxa m\u00e9dia anual de 17,4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guilherme Nolasco, presidente da Uni\u00e3o Nacional do Etanol de Milho (UNEM), ressalta que o aumento das tarifas pode desestabilizar o com\u00e9rcio global e afetar investimentos. Para ele, a disputa comercial abre oportunidades para que o Brasil expanda suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os, fibras e carnes, mas os riscos para o com\u00e9rcio internacional permanecem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Brasileira das Ind\u00fastrias de \u00d3leos Vegetais (ABIOVE) afirmou que ainda \u00e9 cedo para avaliar o impacto total das tarifas, mas ressaltou a import\u00e2ncia de manter rela\u00e7\u00f5es equilibradas com China e EUA, ambos parceiros estrat\u00e9gicos do agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vis\u00e3o dos analistas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

O analista Jo\u00e3o Birkhan, da Sim Consult, acredita que o principal efeito imediato ser\u00e1 a reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o dos mercados globais de soja e milho, favorecendo produtores brasileiros. Segundo ele, a China n\u00e3o pode simplesmente reduzir seu consumo desses produtos e, ao diminuir compras dos EUA, buscar\u00e1 fornecedores na Argentina, no Paraguai e, principalmente, no Brasil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No setor de algod\u00e3o, a Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Brasileira dos Produtores de Algod\u00e3o (ABRAPA) prev\u00ea um aumento nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es no curto prazo, mas alerta para os impactos negativos que a incerteza comercial pode gerar no longo prazo. Atualmente, a China responde por 41,4% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de algod\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

J\u00e1 no setor de carnes, a decis\u00e3o da China de sobretaxar produtos dos EUA pode favorecer as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras, segundo Ricardo Santin, presidente da Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Brasileira de Prote\u00edna Animal (ABPA). Ele acredita que o Brasil pode aumentar o volume exportado, aproveitando canais comerciais j\u00e1 estabelecidos com importadores chineses. No entanto, alerta que, durante o primeiro mandato de Trump, os EUA e a China fecharam um acordo comercial que restaurou o fluxo normal de com\u00e9rcio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al\u00e9m da possibilidade de maiores exporta\u00e7\u00f5es, Santin destaca que o principal efeito das novas tarifas ser\u00e1 a valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o dos produtos brasileiros. Como os pre\u00e7os da carne su\u00edna e do frango dos EUA devem subir devido \u00e0s tarifas, os produtos brasileiros podem se tornar mais competitivos. Atualmente, a China importa mais de 150 mil toneladas de frango e cerca de 200 mil toneladas de carne su\u00edna dos Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embora a guerra comercial represente uma oportunidade para o Brasil, os especialistas alertam que a instabilidade no com\u00e9rcio global pode gerar consequ\u00eancias imprevis\u00edveis. A depend\u00eancia da demanda chinesa e a possibilidade de novas tarifas sobre produtos brasileiros ainda s\u00e3o fatores que exigem cautela dos exportadores.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro pode se beneficiar da nova rodada de tarifas impostas pela China sobre produtos agr\u00edcolas dos Estados Unidos. Especialistas apontam que essa retalia\u00e7\u00e3o … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":10965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-10964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-negocios","tag-brasil","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"\nGuerra comercial pode impulsionar exporta\u00e7\u00f5es do agroneg\u00f3cio<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro pode se beneficiar da nova rodada de tarifas impostas pela China sobre produtos agr\u00edcolas dos Estados Unidos.\" \/>\n<meta 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